State wide election observations and predictions
In the GOP primary - Phil Bryant by a sizeable double digit margin in the GOP Lt. Gov. primary. Congrats to Charlie Ross for a formidable State Senate tenure. Sad news that he will now have to go. And PB will defeat Dem Jamie Franks in the general, although not without sweating. Maybe profusely.What the heck is Haley Barbour doing (see Neshoba speech) personally insulting John Arthur Eaves, Jr., and then continuing to mention him in his address (the former not scripted although the latter was on the page before him)? Is there some poll somewhere that says...
GOP awfully excited about Al Hopkins taking on Jim Hood for AG in the general. Long way to go and a short time to get there for Al. But he has raised the money to get the job started.
Stacey Pickering (GOP) in a walk for State Auditor all the way through the general. Great guy in his own right, but names help, too.
Tate Reeves. Treasurer. Yawn.
"Englebert" Hosemann for Secretary of State on the GOP side. And if he keeps up a substantive campaign and commercials that visually take him outside of NE Jackson...he will win it all.
No feel for Insurance Commissioner on the Dem side. I'll predict Gary Anderson for no good reason than he is supposedly a great guy with solid credentials. And expect Mike Chaney to beat him in the general if he wins because of race (a sad but true statewide election disability). And George Dale would beat Chaney if Dale wins.
Max Phillips for Ag. Commissioner. And wins the general, too.
Labels: Mississippo politics
posted by Matt Friedeman at
3:40 PM
2 Comments:
Matt-
You're probably correct that Phil Bryant will easily defeat Charlie Ross. My guess would be a 10-15% victory. As for the general election, the insider media crowd is thinking more highly of Jamie Franks primarily because of his speaking skills. However, after the primaries are over, Phil will very likely have targeted ads that clearly define the contrast between him and the much less experienced Franks. Haley will probably also make some campaign linkages with Phil, which will put Jamie Franks at even more of a disadvantage. It won't be as close as some might think. Phil will win by at least 5%.
Al Hopkins will come awfully close to beating Jim Hood in the general election, but Hood will probably come out on top. Haley will probably find a way to shift some funds to Al and that will help him tremendously.
Stacey Pickering, Tate Reeves, Delbert Hosemann - yep, they will all win fairly easily.
I think you're underestimating George Dale's name recognition and money. He will probably beat Gary Anderson, but barely. You're probably correct that Dale will beat Mike Chaney in the general election.
Lester Spell could still pull it out for the GOP Ag Commissioner race, but Max Phillips will probably win in the primary and in the general election.
Finally, why did Haley launch a few barbs at Eaves at the Fair? He did it because it was smart politics. Some contend that ignoring a challenger is the best approach to take for an incumbent. Haley knows that pointing out his opponent's negatives, but in a passing manner as he did at Neshoba, scores hits. Eaves is trying to cozy with Christian conservatives. The mention of Haley's wife highlights that Eaves doesn't fit the ideal governor profile that many Christians have.
Haley is one of the most astute politicians in Mississippi history (perhaps U.S. history). When he does something (even throwing jobs at his overmatched opponents), my hunch is that he has carefully thought about it and it is part of a solid political plan. Is he seeing negative signs in the polls? Only in John Arthur Eaves' dreams!
Great job, Matt! Keep it up!
Keith in Brandon
What do you think about war veteran Michael Stafford running for district 17 state rep ?
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